I'm taking an interesting approach to pitching for Tuesday in selecting the four starters from two games. My pitcher to avoid is actually someone I really like, but he's running into two potent offenses this week, including the MLB's top-scoring team on Tuesday. The hitting picks are based on targeting a couple of pitchers in particular.
Pitching
Pitchers to stream
Alex Wood (L), 9 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: Wood has become one of the best swingmen in the game and fits perfectly on the health-challenged Dodgers. He is striking out almost a batter per inning, and though his walk rate is a touch high at 10 percent, it's heavily influenced by the five he had on April 10. He went six one-hit innings against the Giants his last time out, and their 3.4 runs per game are an National League worst (and 29th in MLB).
Matt Moore (L), 48 percent, San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers' ineptitude against lefties spans back to the beginning of last year. Their 72 wRC+ against lefties is easily the league's worst mark (the Phillies are 29th at 80). Like Wood, Moore faced his Tuesday opponent in his most recent start and had success with seven two-hit innings and a season-high eight strikeouts. Two bad starts against Colorado (home and away) have inflated Moore's numbers, but his skills are solid and suggest better work going forward.
Tyler Chatwood (R), 7 percent, Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Chatwood has the league's best road ERA since the start of 2016 at 1.80 in 95 innings, and owns a healthy lead over No. 2 Carlos Carrasco at 2.23. He shut out the Giants in his last road start on April 15. Just don't let Wil Myers beat you this time, Tyler! Chatwood allowed three of the four hits in Myers' cycle on April 10. Even with Myers, the Padres have the second-highest strikeout rate and lowest wOBA vs. righties since the beginning of last season.
Trevor Cahill (R), 4 percent, San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: Cahill has been an impressive strikeout arm so far this year with 11.3 punchouts per nine, and owns a fantastic 14 percent swinging strike rate to back it up. Meanwhile, the Rockies have been their normally inept selves on the road with an 82 wRC+ away from Coors, 28th in the league.
Pitchers to avoid
Taijuan Walker (R), 56 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals: I'm a huge Walker fan, but this isn't a great week for him. He gets the Nats and Rockies, both on the road. Ouch.
Bullpen
The Chicago White Sox's bullpen has been really impressive thus far, and it's not just Nate Jones and David Robertson. Anthony Swarzak, Tommy Kahnle, Zach Putnam, and Dan Jennings have all been tremendous this year.
Projected game scores
GS is the projected game score for the pitcher. A "*" means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate rating; these are the author's ratings.
Hitting
Catcher
Tucker Barnhart (B), 2 percent, Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Tyler Glasnow): While he is a switch-hitter, he's always done his best work against righties with a .715 OPS and nine of his 11 career home runs. He has just a .475 OPS against lefties. Glasnow hasn't really been able to get either side out consistently, but his 1.079 OPS against righties has been particularly bad this year.
First base
Justin Bour (L), 8 percent, Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Alex Cobb): Bour really sputtered out of the gate, but he's turned it around of late with a .333/.351/.611 line in his past 10 games, including a four-hit afternoon on Sunday that was a bit overshadowed by Anthony Rendon's insanity (6-6, 10 RBIs). Cobb's normally excellent changeup has been missing in action since his return from Tommy John surgery, leading to a horrific 1.086 OPS against lefties with four homers in 51 plate appearances.
Second base
Kolten Wong (L), 8 percent, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (RHP Wily Peralta): Peralta looked sharp early on, carrying over some late-2016 success, but he has come crashing back to earth as his troubles against lefties once again resurfaced in the form of a 1.036 OPS. He has the seventh-worst wOBA against lefties since 2014. Wong doesn't exactly decimate righties, but he's been solid against them this year with a .796 OPS and a 1-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with eight of each.
Third base
Derek Dietrich (L), 1 percent, Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Alex Cobb): Picking on Cobb again with Dietrich, so let's hope he's in the lineup. Starts have been sporadic since Martin Prado's return. Dietrich has a career 152-point platoon split favoring his work against righties (.782 OPS), and while he hasn't done much this year (.445 OPS in 42 PA), it's likely small sample noise as evidenced by a .214 BABIP.
Shortstop
Zack Cozart (R), 58 percent, Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Tyler Glasnow): Cheated a little on the 50 percent threshold with Cozart, but he's been tremendous and probably shouldn't be this available. Nine of his 21 hits against righties have gone for extra bases, yielding a 1.043 OPS.
Corner infield
Mitch Moreland (L), 41 percent, Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Alec Asher): Half of Moreland's 24 hits in April were doubles. He had a .280/.357/.493 line against righties, and he's always done his best work against them with a 106-point platoon split. He has quietly been a big piece of that Boston lineup.
Middle infield
Didi Gregorius (L), 35 percent, New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Mat Latos): I had to get a couple of pieces of the Yankees' lineup in against Latos and his sub-1.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio (0.71). His 3.27 ERA is comically fraudulent, and he's likely to see it rise against the highest-scoring team in the American League and second-highest in MLB (5.6 runs per game). Gregorius is fresh off the disabled list, but he hasn't wasted any time building on a solid 2016 with three straight multi-hit games (.467 average through 15 plate appearances).
Outfield
Scott Schebler (L), 20 percent, Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Tyler Glasnow): Picking on Glasnow a good bit for Tuesday. Schebler slashed .323/.386/.449 at home last season and carries a double-platoon edge against Glasnow. Not only have 38 percent of his career hits against righties gone for extra bases, but Glasnow is also allowing a .297 average to lefties early in his career.
Brett Gardner (L), 34 percent, New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Mat Latos): Gardner hasn't been killing it at the dish this year, but a lot of it is struggles against lefties (.180 OPS in 17 at-bats). His .771 OPS against righties is perfectly solid. Plus, this is a pick against Latos as much as anything else.
Randal Grichuk (R), 52 percent, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (RHP Wily Peralta): I'd prefer another lefty going against Peralta, but Grichuk has a neutral platoon split for his career as his .795 OPS is actually 13 points better than his work against lefties. Peralta has allowed six home runs in his past three starts, including four his last time out.
Notes: Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth, as well as the past 21 days) and ballpark factors. "LH" and "RH" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, whereas a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.
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