LEXINGTON, Ky. -- The forecast for Churchill Downs on Saturday calls for a 60 percent chance of rain.
How would that impact the race?
Wet track conditions can favor some horses more than others. 2016 Kentucky Derby runner-up Exaggerator seemed to run best on a wet track. 1972 Kentucky Derby winner Riva Ridge detested it, leading to his loss in the Preakness that year.
Of this year's entrants, Classic Empire and Lookin at Lee have experience racing on a wet track at Churchill Downs. Classic Empire won his career debut by 1½ lengths on a sloppy track, while Lookin at Lee finished second in the Grade III Iroquois on a muddy track.
Gormley won the Grade III Sham Stakes on a sloppy track at Santa Anita, Hence broke his maiden on a wet track at Oaklawn Park, and Battle of Midway won his career debut on a wet-fast track at Santa Anita.
Irap was fourth on a sloppy track at Santa Anita, Untrapped finished second in the Lecomte on a muddy track at the Fair Grounds and Sonneteer was second at Del Mar on a good track in a maiden race.
The other horses in the race have never run on a wet track.
Trainer Chad Brown, who conditions 20-1 shot Practice Joke, said he's as in the dark as everyone else to predict what would happen, or how the race would change in the mud. He thinks his horse would probably handle the track.
"I'm neutral," Brown said. "He doesn't have any experience on it, but there's nothing about the horse that tells me he wouldn't love it. It's an unknown. I would prefer clear racing conditions for everybody, it's just a more enjoyable day for the people and the horses, but if it were to come up a wet track, I'm just as curious as everybody to see how my horse would handle that. Anything can happen."
Graham Motion, the trainer of Irish War Cry, said he would not change his strategy with the colt if it rains. Irish War Cry also has never run on a wet track, but he is sired by Curlin, who was known to handle wet tracks well. Curlin also sired the slop-loving Exaggerator.
"I'd be surprised if he didn't handle it," Motion said. "His daddy handled it. I don't know, I think he'd be fine on it. He gallops on it very well."
The last Kentucky Derby won on a sloppy track was 2013, when the favored Orb won by 2½ lengths in such conditions.
Can Lookin at Lee escape the dreaded No. 1 post?
Lookin at Lee will attempt to be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986. Ferdinand faced 15 other horses in that race. Post position No. 1 once produced winners on a regular basis, but that has changed in an era when the field is regularly filled to the maximum capacity of 20 horses.
Lookin at Lee's sire, Lookin at Lucky, was the last favorite to break from the first post, but ultimately finished sixth. Here's how horses have finished from that post position since 2010:
2016: Trojan Nation (42-1) -- 16th
2015: Ocho Ocho Ocho (26-1) -- 14th
2014: Vicar's in Trouble (20-1) -- 19th
2013: Black Onyx was scratched.
2012: Daddy Long Legs (26-1) -- Did not finish (eased)
2011: Archarcharch (12-1) -- 15th. He was vanned off after the finish and did not race again.
2010: Lookin at Lucky (6-1) -- sixth
What happened to Calumet's colors?
Calumet Farm will have three entrants in the Kentucky Derby this year: Hence, Patch and Sonneteer. It's the first time the historic farm, which once produced Triple Crown winners Whirlaway and Citation, will enter three horses in the starting gate of the Derby. The storied farm has had two runners in the Kentucky Derby three times, most notably in 1948 when it ran 1-2 with Citation and Coaltown.
However, the horses won't be running in the historic devil's red and blue silks that the jockeys of their previous eight Derby winners wore. The silks were sold to a Brazilian investment group in 1992 after the farm filed for bankruptcy. Calumet's current owner, Brad Kelley, purchased the farm in 2012, and designed new silks that are black with gold chevrons.
Calumet has not had a Derby winner since Forward Pass in 1968, although Oxbow won the Preakness for Calumet in 2013.
The one-eyed horse
Todd Pletcher-trained Patch will break from the No. 20 spot Saturday, but he won't be able to see the 19 horses to his left.
Patch doesn't wear blinkers, but he might as well this weekend. Patch has only one eye due to an ulcer that didn't heal, forcing the removal of his eye last July. Patch was named before his eye was removed.
It has not appeared to hinder him yet, as he was the runner-up in the Louisiana Derby this year. However, he has never had the far outside post.
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