Three months before the start of the 2017 Supercross season, Eli Tomac's Kawasaki team manager, Dan Fahie, sent him an analytics spreadsheet. On it was race-by-race comparisons between Tomac, 24, and other top riders, including defending champ Ryan Dungey, 27, throughout the 2016 season.
Motocross riders are used to poring over data, but typically, that information focuses on bike performance diagnostics, not Sabermetrics-style race analytics like Tomac was given. That type of analysis was new to him and new, really, to his sport.
But Fahie wanted to prove a point.
"It's one thing to tell Eli [who finished fourth in 2016] that we struggled last year because of starts," Fahie says. "It's another to back it up with data."
Tomac, like all riders, knows starts matter.
"Out front, you ride more like you would at a practice track," he says. "You're less nervous, more clear headed and focused on yourself. Out front, it's easier to win."
Adds Dungey: "The start is the only part of the race where you can pass every rider on the track."
But when Tomac saw the cold, hard evidence -- Dungey logged five holeshots (the first rider through the first turn), had an average position after one lap of 2.53, an average finish of 1.76 and passed less than one rider per race in his 2016 championship run.
Even Tomac had to admit starts are more crucial to a championship than he believed they were.
"He looked at the numbers and went, 'Ryan didn't pass anyone last year. He didn't have to take any risks!" Fahie says. "Then he said, 'I need to work on my starts. Is McGrath around?'"
Enter seven-time Supercross champ and Kawasaki ambassador Jeremy McGrath, 45, whose 72 career Supercross wins in the 1990s earned him the nickname the "King of Supercross" and the respect of young riders like Tomac.
"Eli was real receptive to the idea of listening to what I had to say, so we put a plan together to go out to the track," McGrath says.
In preparation for the work he planned to do with Tomac, McGrath stood in the start gate for the 450 main events at the first three races of 2017 and was shocked by what he saw.
"It blew my mind how many guys who are really good don't know how to start," McGrath says. "They are doing it all wrong. Eli didn't get good starts in those races, either, so we started working."
For the next three Mondays at a test track in California, McGrath coached Tomac on his starts, which he says are 80 percent of a rider's race.
"We needed to make his starts more of a pro-action instead of a reaction and he needed to be more concentrated on himself," McGrath says, "and not be distracted in the gate."
Tomac agrees that learning to put on the proverbial blinders has made a tangible difference this season.
"Jeremy taught me not to worry about who's to my left and my right," Tomac says. "There are guys who you don't want to line up next to because they play with their throttle and make extra noise or shake their handlebars, make nervous motions and are fidgety and catch you off guard.
"Now I try to stay calm and not get caught thinking about someone else or focusing on the wrong thing when the gate drops."
McGrath also taught Tomac his "15-foot process" to a great start, including a clear mind, smooth clutch release, the importance of traction and body position, not anticipating the gate drop and perhaps the most important key to a holeshot: believing it's possible.
"It's pretty wild how that works," Tomac says. "More times than not, if I'm in the wrong place with my head, things go wrong and if I'm in a good place and visualize myself holeshotting, I'll go out and get the holeshot. The mental side is huge."
The effect was immediate: Tomac bagged his first holeshot of the season in Phoenix in Week 4, where he won the first of nine races this season. By Week 14, he had erased a 29-point deficit between he and Dungey and with three races remaining, the two riders were tied atop the standings.
"Improving my starts has been the biggest part of my success this season," Tomac says.
In the past three weeks, however, he's reminded his team that the other 20 percent matters a lot, too, and he needs to carry his confidence out of the start gate and onto the track. In Weeks 14 and 15, Tomac started in 10th place, yet finished second and first, respectively. He headed to New Jersey in Week 16 as the outright points leader for the first time in his career, started in the top three and led the race for a lap. Then he crashed, cased a jump, stalled his bike and finished eighth.
Now heading into the final race in Las Vegas on Saturday, Tomac trails Dungey by nine points, which means he needs a win in order to keep his title hopes alive.
If Tomac wins and Dungey finishes fifth or worse, Tomac wins the title. In all other scenarios, Dungey wins his fourth 450SX title and third in a row.
For either rider, a great start would go a long way to winning the title. And no one needs a spreadsheet to understand that.
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