CHICAGO – Smart baseball fans shouldn’t be surprised by how the Chicago Cubs played the first month while defending their championship, but now that the calendar has turned a page, it’s time for them to create some separation in the standings.
It’s not that it’s getting late -- of course it isn’t -- but in order for them to really put themselves in the best position to repeat, the Cubs need a comfortable late-summer lead.
It’s essential.
“When you have to push hard late, it’s difficult,” manager Joe Maddon said Sunday in Boston. “You get to the playoffs. It’s emotional as much as physical.”
Maddon has been using the word "emotional" a lot lately as he keeps a keen eye on his players' psyche while also monitoring their physical condition. There are probably a few reasons no National League team has repeated since the Reds in 1975 and '76, and Maddon is trying to eliminate as many variables as possible. Make no mistake, he has a fine line to walk as he tries to keep his players fresh while winning enough games to avoid a frenzied push in the final stretch. That sort of intense effort can derail your postseason no matter how many you win from April to October, especially in the three-round playoff era, not to mention the Cubs' deep postseason runs the past two seasons.
“You look around baseball, right now the best teams in baseball have seven or eight losses,” general manager Jed Hoyer said. “What we did last year [starting 25-6] is the anomaly. Realistically, you expect your team to grow and get sharper as the season goes along, and I think that’s going to happen with us.”
In that sense, you might regard April as an extra month of spring training, which means going 13-11 while still sorting things out isn’t a huge deal. If there has been an area that has screamed, We’re not quite ready for prime time, it’s the starting staff. After they were purposely held back in February and March, it is taking time for all five to find their respective games.
Last April, the Cubs' rotation had an ERA of 2.33. This year it's 4.28. That’s a huge jump, and that alone can be the difference between a 13-11 month and a 17-5 one. That, for a point of reference, was the Cubs' record last season when April ended.
“Last year was just quality start after quality start,” Hoyer said. “That’s when you run off winning streaks.”
That’s not to say all other parts of the Cubs' game have been great.
Kyle Schwarber has had an up-and-down month at the plate and in the field, while several other hitters haven’t locked in just yet either. The bullpen had a couple freaky moments early in the month, but has since rebounded for the Cubs to win a few come-from-behind games. The point is, the champion Cubs haven’t looked much like champions so far.
“We haven’t necessarily nailed it as starting pitchers,” Maddon said. “We haven’t nailed [it] hitting-wise or even defense. We’ve played good, but I still don’t think we’ve played any facet of our game up to our capabilities yet.”
Maddon hit the nail on the head with that assessment, and now is the time for a few things to start locking in. A few winning streaks over the next two months should set up July, August and September properly. The Cubs can set the pace within the division later in the summer, but this is about being ready for October. Push now so they don’t have to later. Even Maddon is waiting for it.
“I’m looking forward to us playing our game in all factors and facets consistently, like we’re capable of,” he said.
It starts with the rotation. A terrible month of first innings probably made it seem that the Cubs were always trailing. But there really weren’t any short outings. Instead, it was much more common to see the starter ultimately settle down – Kyle Hendricks on Sunday night is a good example -- to give his team a chance at those comebacks. But the formula felt wrong most of the month. It’s time to reverse it. Even if you buy the idea that April was an extra 30 days of spring training, that's over now.
Cubs baseball will return soon -- we know that -- but sooner rather than later could be the difference between running out of gas come October and making another historic run.
“We had a good April, but it’s certainly not up to the standards of some of the runs we had last year,” Hoyer said.
That’s what May and June are for.
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